Pres. Trump says mandatory payments like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security are “next.” If those payments are not paid, the US government would have officially defaulted on its obligations.
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| We all need sustenance. |
- If the government cannot borrow more (because the debt ceiling isn’t raised) and cash-flows are insufficient, then it may have to delay or skip payments on some obligations (e.g., interest on Treasuries, benefits, salaries). That would be a default.
- Such an event would likely trigger:
- sharply higher interest rates for U.S. government borrowing
- disruption in global financial markets, given Treasuries are foundational to many systems
- potential cascading effects—like delays in payments to contractors, benefit payments, etc.
- It’s important to note that “default” doesn’t always mean the same thing in every context:
- A technical default might be a missed payment by a deadline or a payment made late.
- A sovereign default is broader: failing to meet obligations in a way that undermines faith in the government’s ability to pay.
Feed the poor
and hungry.
- The U.S. government has not defaulted on its major obligations in a way that is widely recognized as a full default.
- However, the risk of default (or very significant payment delays) is real and rising, especially if there is a political impasse over the debt ceiling or budget.
📊 What the data show
• The Treasury’s main operating account — the Treasury General Account (TGA) — has a balance in the ball-park of $850 billion (about $851,952 million) as of October 15, 2025.
• Treasury reports that its “operating cash held” increased to about $870.8 billion during Fiscal Year 2024.
• The Treasury also uses what are called “extraordinary measures” when near the debt limit — accounting/manoeuvre tools to buy time when borrowing authority is constrained.
• For example: The Treasury estimated an “X-date” (the day it runs out of funds to meet all obligations) would have come sometime in mid-to-late summer 2025, if no action was taken on the debt ceiling.
✅ What this suggests
• Having ~$800-$900 billion in cash gives the Treasury a buffer to continue making payments for some time.
• The existence of extraordinary measures means the Treasury has tools to delay default even after hitting the statutory debt ceiling.
• So, immediate default is unlikely today, based on available data — there is time to act.
⚠️ What the risks / caveats are
• Although the cash balance is large, it doesn’t mean there is unlimited ability to pay everything indefinitely. The buffer is finite, and obligations are large and ongoing.
• Extraordinary measures are temporary. They buy time but are not a permanent fix. If Congress doesn’t act (or some revenue/spending shock happens), the buffer will run out.
• The “X-date” estimates come with uncertainty: changes in revenue, spending, or unexpected obligations can move the date up or down.
• The recent raising of the debt limit (to ~ $41.1 trillion) gives more headroom but doesn’t remove underlying structural pressures.
• At this moment, the U.S. government appears not to be on the brink of immediate payment default. The cash buffer and tools are working.
• However, if the government shutdown or debt-ceiling impasse continues or worsens, or surprises occur (e.g., large unforeseen payouts), the risk of delays or default rises.
• Key indicators to monitor:
• How fast the TGA (cash account) balance is drawn down.
• Whether Treasury signals a new “X-date” (the point at which it cannot meet all obligations).
• Whether extraordinary measures are being expanded or indicate stress.
• Political/legislative actions: whether Congress acts in time to raise or suspend the debt limit.
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| Rent is due. |
This explains late payments to Section 8 landlords but for someone concerned about programs like rent payments under federal subsidy programs (such as Section 8) or other federal payments: while there’s no confirmed broad default yet, delays are possible if cash-flows are strained. These “delays” have occurred since May 2025.
It is important to note that Section 8 is not the only social service program in peril, however, it is a program fashioned for the working class to improve their circumstance and for the poor to have affordable housing.
And in some cities — like Atlanta — housing agencies have even paused rent increases for landlords because of all the budget uncertainty.
So if you’re a tenant or landlord, it’s smart to check your housing portal or contact your agency just to make sure payments have gone through.
The bottom line is that Section 8 is still standing, but the system’s feeling the pressure.
And with the government shutdown stretching on, everyone’s watching to see how long it can hold. However, there are new budget items being added, creating a strain and cuing perception issue number one gazillion: Somebody’s addicted to flying in jets when they could probably use military transport. js
Friends, this isn’t just about numbers. It’s about priorities. When leaders find money for luxury planes but can’t agree on feeding the most vulnerable… what does that say about us as a nation?
We’ve all seen hard times. Some of us have lived through shutdowns, layoffs, uncertainty… and yet, here we are, trying to make sense of choices being made hundreds of miles above our heads — literally flying high — while others struggle just to eat.
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| De plane! |
✈️ DHS Jet Purchase
• Cost: about $172 million for two Gulfstream G700 jets
• Justification: “mission readiness” and replacement of aging aircraft
• Timing: During a federal shutdown and funding freeze, which has drawn bipartisan criticism
🍎 SNAP (Food Stamps) Monthly Outlay
• The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) serves roughly 42 million Americans
• Average monthly benefit: around $180 per person
• Total monthly payout ≈ 42 million × $180 = $7.56 billion per month
So — in scale terms:
Item Estimated Cost Equivalent SNAP Coverage
2 DHS jets $172 million SNAP benefits for ~955,000 people for one month
1 month of all U.S. SNAP benefits $7.56 billion About 44× the cost of both jets
🧮 Budget Impact Context
While $172 million is small compared to total federal spending (over $6 trillion/year), it’s politically and ethically significant during a funding crisis:
• DHS’s purchase draws scrutiny because nonessential spending is supposed to pause under a shutdown.
• USDA has stated it will run out of funds for November SNAP benefits if Congress doesn’t act soon — meaning tens of millions could go without food assistance.
• The optics are stark: luxury aircraft being purchased while families may lose grocery money.
⚠️ Summary
• DHS jets: ~$172 million discretionary expenditure
• SNAP funding gap: ~$7.5 billion monthly risk
• Symbolically, one procurement equals nearly a million people’s food benefits for a month.
• The issue isn’t that the jets “caused” the SNAP shortfall — but that budget priorities and timing during a shutdown make the contrast glaring.
🍎 SNAP (Food Stamps) Monthly Outlay
• The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) serves roughly 42 million Americans
• Average monthly benefit: around $180 per person
• Total monthly payout ≈ 42 million × $180 = $7.56 billion per month
So — in scale terms:
Item Estimated Cost Equivalent SNAP Coverage
2 DHS jets $172 million SNAP benefits for ~955,000 people for one month
1 month of all U.S. SNAP benefits $7.56 billion About 44× the cost of both jets.
